Valerien Ismael has blamed his poor start as Blackburn Rovers boss on his ‘’important players’’ missing through injury, but an alarming statistic highlights a deeper issue.
The Frenchman, who took over from Derby County bound John Eustace in February, has seen his side lose three of his first four matches in charge, remaining winless as Rovers boss, continuing the dismal run of form that culminated in his sacking by Watford just a few months ago.
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Similarly to the end of his Hornets tenure, Ismael lamented how injuries are affecting Rovers’ performances, pointing to his long injury list after their 1-2 home defeat to Cardiff City last weekend as Omer Riza sides’ substitutes Will Alves and Yakou Meite combined to score the winner.7
‘‘I think the break now (International games) is coming at the right time, the players need to breathe, we need to get some players back, because you see clearly, it has an impact on the game.
‘‘(Harry) Pickering (expected back), (Ryan) Hedges (expected back), Danny Batth (expected back), Andy Weimann is out (season-ending injury), and (Emmanuel) Dennis will be out for a long time (Injury vs Cardiff, no timeline yet), Callum Brittain for four weeks at least, (Augustus) Kargbo is six weeks, it’s a lot…
‘‘At some point with Blackburn, you reach a limit and when some very important players are missing, then you can convince for one game but on a run (of games), you will feel it’’ he said.
Are these players that ‘’important’’ and will their return end Ismael’s awful run?
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Dennis’ and Kargbo’s seasons have been nulled by injury while Hedges and Weimann have been prominent figures and in these cases Ismael has a point. Hedges’ modest two-goal contribution across 26 starts is poor, however the 26-year-old’s expected goals is just 2.25 (53.2nd percentile) while his expected assists is 1.76 (57th percentile); the Welshman is clearly a part of a bigger problem but has exacerbated his own issues; he struggles to create chances for his teammates and himself.
Weimann’s nine goal contribution is impressive, the Championship veteran has outperformed his expected goals of 6.90, scoring seven league goals; he’s Rovers top scorer and his absence has left a gaping hole in an already thin attack.
Thin in defence?
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Danny Batth and Callum Brittain have arguably been Rovers two best defenders this season. Batth has won 116 aerial duels (93.1 percentile); the 34-year-olds towering presence and experience in defence has been at the epicentre of their success, hence their nine clean sheets when he’s been on the pitch.
Alongside his teammate Tyrhys Dolan, Brittain has showcased his dazzling footwork down the right-hand side, totalling 36 ‘chances created’ (90.2 percentile) and 25 successful dribbles (93.1%). His partnership with Dolan and spry, nimble frame plays a huge role in helping his side create chances and move up the pitch with speed. Batth and Brittian are game changers.
Harry Pickering, a regular before his injury in late December (2024), and ever-present since his move from Crewe Alexandra in 2021/2022, is one of the division’s best and most consistent left-back’s but one who’s only provided one assist in his 12 starts. He averages just 0.62 chances created per 90 minutes (37.3 percentile); this is below par, and they’ll need more from him on his return if he is to be, in Ismael’s words, an ‘’important’’ player.
But will the Frenchman last?
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The 49-year-old must steady the ship if he’s to match the patience afforded to his predecessors—Tony Mowbray (267 games), Jon Dahl Tomasson (90), and John Eustace (52).Injuries have disrupted his start, and the squad is thin. But Eustace had a similar group of players overachieving. Now, Ismael must find a way to do the same.
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Being winless in his first four games and winning just one of the last 15 games he’s managed in the Sky Bet Championship creates a bleak picture. Rovers were sixth before he arrived—and after three straight losses against relegation battlers: Derby (in the drop zone), Stoke and now Cardiff (just a point above it), they sit five points off sixth-placed West Brom.
Next weekend’s trip to struggling Portsmouth is more than just another game—it’s a chance to stop the rot and shift the narrative around a Rovers side in free fall.